Best Bets For Philadelphia-Carolina
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
10/12/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Thursday night's tilt between the Philadelphia Eagles and Carolina Panthers. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-3)
Total: 45.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 57 percent on Philadelphia
Steele: Both teams sit at the top of the NFC standings after easily delivering ATS wins for me a week ago. This will be a great Thursday night battle. Philadelphia looks like a complete team, as it has a balanced offense that gains 68 yards per game more than opponents usually allow. The lone loss was at Kansas City by seven, and the Eagles had a 62-yard edge in that one. The buy sign went on with Carolina two weeks ago, when Cam Newton started to look like the 2015 version who took them to the Super Bowl. The Panthers went on the road, led the Detroit Lions 27-10 and even held off the expected Matthew Stafford fourth-quarter rally. I would not go against either of these teams right now.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: After facing three straight opponents ranking in the bottom 10 for total efficiency, the Eagles play the middle-of-the-pack, 17th-ranked Panthers. So far this year, Carolina's strength has been on defense and with the run game, but recently the offense has taken off thanks in part to a healthier and more confident Newton. Carolina has improved in recent weeks and currently ranks third in explosive passing offense, but it has earned that against the NFL's easiest schedule of explosive pass defenses. Despite the talk of a weak secondary, the Eagles actually rank as the NFL's best team at preventing explosive passes, which should be a key factor in this game. If Carolina gets the pass game going, it could be a big edge, as the Eagles aren't accustomed to allowing big passing plays frequently.
Meanwhile, the Eagles offense and Carson Wentz have been great to watch, but I won't consider them a pleasant surprise, as I jumped on the Wentz wagon in the offseason and forecasted tremendous growth. Without Lane Johnson, who will sit with a concussion, the young quarterback will have a tough time against the 10th-rated pass defense, the toughest that the Eagles have faced since Week 1.
Pick: Pass
Clay prediction and pick: Carolina 23, Philadelphia 20 (under)
Parolin's prop bets
62.5 receiving yards by Kelvin Benjamin (O/U -110)
Benjamin has caught 80 percent of his targets since Week 2, but his usage has been difficult to pin down. Since a two-target performance in Week 3, Benjamin's targets have risen over the past two weeks and the Panthers offense has clicked, with 60 points and a pair of wins. Carolina isn't a heavy pass-yardage offense, ranking 17th at 228.6 yards per game. The fluctuation in Benjamin's usage is a strike against him here, even though his opponent really struggles against perimeter receivers. The Eagles defense has allowed a staggering 178.2 yards per game to perimeter receivers, the most in the league by over 27 yards. Benjamin has lined up wide on 95 of 111 routes this season. That should put him in line for a big day, right? If current patterns hold, Benjamin won't see enough of the ball. Devin Funchess is finally living up to his billing as a former first-round pick, seeing 27 targets over the past three weeks compared to Benjamin's 12. Both Funchess and Christian McCaffrey have at least twice as many targets as Benjamin, and it could simply be difficult for Benjamin to amass enough looks to hit 63 yards.
Pick: Under
Five combined sacks by both teams (O/U -110)
Wentz and Newton have taken a combined 28 sacks in their first five games, putting them right around the total. Both quarterbacks hold the ball at or longer than the league average, ranking 11th (Wentz) and 14th (Newton) out of 32 qualified quarterbacks in most seconds before pass. Wentz, in particular, should try to get the ball out quicker this week because the Panthers' pass rush has been effective. Carolina has recorded a sack on 9 percent of pass plays this season, fifth best in the league. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals have more sacks than the Panthers defense (17), while the Eagles are tied for 12th with 12 sacks. While Wentz and Newton hold the ball at or longer than the league average, the two pass rushes are at or faster than the league average sack time. Two quarterbacks who invite pressure by holding the ball against two defenses who can produce sacks and get to quarterbacks quicker than average? There won't be four or fewer sacks on Thursday night.
Pick: Over
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
10/12/17
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Thursday night's tilt between the Philadelphia Eagles and Carolina Panthers. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-3)
Total: 45.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 57 percent on Philadelphia
Steele: Both teams sit at the top of the NFC standings after easily delivering ATS wins for me a week ago. This will be a great Thursday night battle. Philadelphia looks like a complete team, as it has a balanced offense that gains 68 yards per game more than opponents usually allow. The lone loss was at Kansas City by seven, and the Eagles had a 62-yard edge in that one. The buy sign went on with Carolina two weeks ago, when Cam Newton started to look like the 2015 version who took them to the Super Bowl. The Panthers went on the road, led the Detroit Lions 27-10 and even held off the expected Matthew Stafford fourth-quarter rally. I would not go against either of these teams right now.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: After facing three straight opponents ranking in the bottom 10 for total efficiency, the Eagles play the middle-of-the-pack, 17th-ranked Panthers. So far this year, Carolina's strength has been on defense and with the run game, but recently the offense has taken off thanks in part to a healthier and more confident Newton. Carolina has improved in recent weeks and currently ranks third in explosive passing offense, but it has earned that against the NFL's easiest schedule of explosive pass defenses. Despite the talk of a weak secondary, the Eagles actually rank as the NFL's best team at preventing explosive passes, which should be a key factor in this game. If Carolina gets the pass game going, it could be a big edge, as the Eagles aren't accustomed to allowing big passing plays frequently.
Meanwhile, the Eagles offense and Carson Wentz have been great to watch, but I won't consider them a pleasant surprise, as I jumped on the Wentz wagon in the offseason and forecasted tremendous growth. Without Lane Johnson, who will sit with a concussion, the young quarterback will have a tough time against the 10th-rated pass defense, the toughest that the Eagles have faced since Week 1.
Pick: Pass
Clay prediction and pick: Carolina 23, Philadelphia 20 (under)
Parolin's prop bets
62.5 receiving yards by Kelvin Benjamin (O/U -110)
Benjamin has caught 80 percent of his targets since Week 2, but his usage has been difficult to pin down. Since a two-target performance in Week 3, Benjamin's targets have risen over the past two weeks and the Panthers offense has clicked, with 60 points and a pair of wins. Carolina isn't a heavy pass-yardage offense, ranking 17th at 228.6 yards per game. The fluctuation in Benjamin's usage is a strike against him here, even though his opponent really struggles against perimeter receivers. The Eagles defense has allowed a staggering 178.2 yards per game to perimeter receivers, the most in the league by over 27 yards. Benjamin has lined up wide on 95 of 111 routes this season. That should put him in line for a big day, right? If current patterns hold, Benjamin won't see enough of the ball. Devin Funchess is finally living up to his billing as a former first-round pick, seeing 27 targets over the past three weeks compared to Benjamin's 12. Both Funchess and Christian McCaffrey have at least twice as many targets as Benjamin, and it could simply be difficult for Benjamin to amass enough looks to hit 63 yards.
Pick: Under
Five combined sacks by both teams (O/U -110)
Wentz and Newton have taken a combined 28 sacks in their first five games, putting them right around the total. Both quarterbacks hold the ball at or longer than the league average, ranking 11th (Wentz) and 14th (Newton) out of 32 qualified quarterbacks in most seconds before pass. Wentz, in particular, should try to get the ball out quicker this week because the Panthers' pass rush has been effective. Carolina has recorded a sack on 9 percent of pass plays this season, fifth best in the league. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals have more sacks than the Panthers defense (17), while the Eagles are tied for 12th with 12 sacks. While Wentz and Newton hold the ball at or longer than the league average, the two pass rushes are at or faster than the league average sack time. Two quarterbacks who invite pressure by holding the ball against two defenses who can produce sacks and get to quarterbacks quicker than average? There won't be four or fewer sacks on Thursday night.
Pick: Over
